The Shifting Sands of South American Politics – A View from the Crossroads of Bolivia
South America's political landscape is in a constant state of transition, with several countries on the brink of significant change. Seen from the perspective of the most recent elections, it seems clear that the region is in the midst of a wave of significant change defined by a rejection of traditional political parties and a renegotiation of the political-economic-social contract. These transformations are driven by deep, underlying socioeconomic challenges, which presage potential volatility regardless of what the ballot box yields.
Regional Context: A Continent in Transition
South America is immersed in an electoral super-cycle that will define its near future and that of the approximately 430 million people who inhabit the region. A large portion of South American countries have elections scheduled in the next 18 months, including Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Peru. With what we have seen in Argentina’s 2023 presidential elections, Ecuador’s February 2025 vote, and the surprising results of Bolivia’s first-round elections on August 17th—change is in underway. Collectively, these national elections are not isolated incidents; they are clear indicators of a broader regional transformation, signaling a period of political redefinition and of the current correlation of forces for South America.
These elections share common threads that demonstrate the pressures and responses across the region:
Economic pressures: The need for a new economic model is palpable. According to UN’s Economic Commission on Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the region will be stuck in a prolonged period of low growth, about 2.3 percent, through 2026. Inflation, unemployment, and inequality, along with growing foreign debt and fluctuations in the prices of basic products, demand urgent responses.
Social discontent: The underlying simmering discontent that fueled social uprisings in 2019 has not been resolved. Citizens are demanding improvements in their quality of life, frustrated by corruption, polarization, and the lack of democratic solutions to structural problems.
Collapse of political systems: Fragmentation and collapse of traditional parties has touched countries throughout the region. Historic parties from Argentina to Mexico—including Bolivia’s Movement Toward Socialism (MAS)—have suffered dramatic declines and in many cases disappeared altogether. As they are unable to channel diverse and growing demands, the emergence of new and often personality-based parties led to a reconfiguration of political alliances, making the formation of consensus around needed reform difficult.
Geopolitical challenges: Organizations such as Mercosur, the Andean Community, Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), and the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) struggle to reinvent themselves, revitalizing, and fulfilling their purpose in an environment of growing nationalism and distrust. All of this occurs in a multipolar international scenario in which global actors such as China, the United States, BRICS, and the European Union compete for influence and resources in South America.
Bolivia at a Crossroads: Economic Tension and Political Fragmentation
Bolivia illustrates the complexity of this regional moment. The country is facing an acute economic and social crisis, defined by a worrying decrease in its foreign reserves, problems in gas production (historically Bolivia’s economic engine), growing inflation, and a persistent fiscal deficit. Corruption, eroded institutions, and the weakening of the rule of law further exacerbate this situation, directly affecting the daily lives of ordinary Bolivians.
At the political level, the MAS, which has dominated Bolivia for most of the last two decades, had been fractured for years before the August 17th vote. Internal divisions and power struggles within the MAS weakened its ability to govern effectively, leaving it unable to adapt its radically statist model to changing conditions. A governing party reliant on political hegemony suddenly divided into factions inevitably has repercussions on national stability.
On the other hand, the opposition was also divided and, at the same time, represented by figures too well-known from their repeated candidacies over the last 20 years: Samuel Doria Medina (three times presidential candidate), Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga (former president), and Manfred Reyes Villa (also a three-time presidential candidate). Ultimately, the Left's vote was split between Andrónico Rodríguez, Edmundo Castillo, running for the MAS, and the null vote, an option promoted by Morales in protest of his electoral disqualification.
Polling (historically unreliable in Bolivia) had anticipated a second round between the pillars of the center-right and the right, Doria Medina and Quiroga. But few foresaw that Senator Rodrigo Paz, son of President Jaime Paz Zamora, would come out the clear leader going into a runoff with Quiroga, scheduled for October. His success, and his advantage heading into the second round, is based on his dedicated and moderate campaign and on public weariness with well-known politicians on the Left and Right.
The Specter of Volatility and the Challenges of Governability and Governance
Regardless of who wins the second round, the new Bolivian government will face immense challenges to quickly establish a governing coalition and legislative agenda. These challenges include the urgent need to implement unpopular but necessary economic reforms, the arduous task of building consensus in a highly polarized political environment, the urgency of restoring public trust in institutions, and the inescapable need to address persistent deep social inequalities.
It is very likely that either Paz or “Tuto” will have a receptive parliament that could reach the two-thirds necessary to push for significant reforms, even if it is fragmented among three main parties. However, his government will have to face very difficult and probably unpopular reforms, and deal with the challenge of Evo Morales. The latter demonstrated, through his campaign for a "null vote" that exceeded 19 percent (historically the null vote is closer to 5 percent), that he still retains a strong ability to mobilize his supporters and cause upheaval in the country.
Bolivia could be at an important inflection point. The new government will have the opportunity to foster foreign investment and diversify the economy beyond natural resources. Socially, it can focus on health and education programs and expand access to credit to reduce inequality. Politically, it can strengthen the country’s democratic institutions, improve transparency and judicial independence and take on corruption.
The expectations are high. But if the elected government fails to steer the economy in a better direction and quickly, instability could manifest in the form of generalized protests, social unrest, and even violence. The risk of political stagnation during a large part of the next term is real. Even with a favorable parliament, attracting much-needed foreign investment will always be complex in Bolivia, given the latent risk that any government may not finish its term or that, between now and the end of this five-year term, another dramatic political renewal will occur, and this new political-legislative framework will become undone. This could create a scenario of persistent social conflict and political volatility.
Conclusion
South America is in a critical juncture. The wave of upcoming electoral processes promises to redefine the course of several nations, with Bolivia serving as a microcosm of broader regional trends. Here, citizens are demanding new leadership and robust democratic processes to navigate these turbulent times. Yet the risk of political paralysis and the possible return to authoritarian populism looms in Bolivia and much of South America going to the polls in the coming months. The region’s future depends on its capacity to respond to these challenges with innovative solutions and broad consensus.
Written by Casey Cagley, Consultant, Red Telescope Global with Eddy Kushida, Political Analyst