RTG POV on Middle East and Northern Africa
As the Trump Administration regains control of the White House later this month, Red Telescope Global (RTG) believes a forward-thinking and strategic approach to the Trump 2.0 version of the U.S. Middle East policy should be well defined. RTG’s experience in the region includes work with anti-Hezbollah political leaders in Lebanon and years of working directly with Syrian-opposition political and civil society groups, and on-the-ground experience in Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, and Turkey underpins our ideas on how the U.S. can provide assistance, encouragement, and leadership to the region. Leaders in the Middle East aspire to a future defined by peace, cooperation, and economic prosperity, or so they say. A future Middle East with these ideals creates a regional partnership for the United States that is first and foremost safe, and secondarily built upon a solid economic foundation that discourages opportunities for violence and corruption.
U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East revolves around a few key concerns, beginning with Israel. The most robust democracy in the region is fighting a war on multiple fronts while navigating a continually changing regional and global political landscape. President-elect Trump has already sent a clear message to Hamas that all October 7th hostages must be released and repatriated by January 20th, but that is only one part of ending the conflict. Conflict resolution centered upon Israel goes hand-in-hand with bolstering the previous Trump Administration’s efforts to increase membership the Abraham Accords. Regional economic development, centered on reducing violence, should create a safer and financially stronger Middle East for the region, its people, and U.S. interests.
This overall strategy of peace-through-economic-development has multiple benefits for nearly every country in the region. With the recent election of the anti-Hezbollah President Joseph Aoun in Lebanon, and the appointment of Nawaf Salam as the Prime Minister, the U.S. has an opportunity to drive new political momentum and strengthen civil society initiatives that, if handled correctly, could build support for regional economic opportunities emanating from Beirut. Providing political impetus and motivation in this sense isn’t an overnight fix, but Trump has an opportunity to provide effectual political and economic assistance that the Biden Administration never had. Further, starting now is paramount: the next Lebanese parliamentary elections are in 2026.
In Syria, the U.S. may have an even greater opportunity to set the foundations for a stable future state. Now that the Assad regime has finally been eradicated and the opposition has shown a willingness to minimize Islamist influence with such actions as rejecting ISIS, guaranteeing Kurdish ethnic inclusivity, and appointing a woman to a senior government role, Syria is taking positive early steps toward a future with more freedom for all Syrians. RTG doesn’t expect there to be much early U.S.-Syrian cooperation, but as they develop their new government and economy, signs point to an openness for better relationship in the years to come. RTG believes U.S. support for political movements and civil society organizations inside Syria can play an important role in integrating a future Syria into a more peaceful region, with directed American assistance helping support regional economic prosperity. Overall, the Trump Administration should maintain realistic expectations about Syria’s future relationship with both the region and the United States.
Iran, the primary source of regional instability, will continue to agitate the region. The first Trump Administration took a hard stance against the Islamist government leadership and, with regional partners, has a serious role to play in making sure Iran stays a non-nuclear power. In addition to this role, the U.S. should increase its support of international humanitarian efforts aimed at organizing and educating the Iranian populace. These grassroots efforts at countering government oppression can lay the groundwork for democratic change. RTG recommends more of this support–in coordination with regional and international players.
Further, the U.S. would benefit from supporting Saudi Arabia’s leadership throughout the entire Middle East on a few key issues. As the dominant regional power, Saudi Arabia is in the best position to lead regional efforts at both economic growth and countering radical Islamist forces in Iran, the West Bank, Gaza, Iraq, Yemen, and the Levant. If Trump can assist the Saudis in their relationship with both Israel and Turkey in addressing shared threats from groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS, Hamas, and the PKK, larger more existential threats such as violence, poverty, and corruption can be mitigated for nations across the region. U.S. support for a robust international consensus on these issues, with strong support for Saudi leadership, may provide the greatest gains for all parties, including strengthening democracy, economics, and peace throughout the world.
Finally, the Trump Administration will have an important role in shaping a solution to the Palestinian Question: what does that future look like? RTG believes building regional support to address Islamist forces and extremist cultures—again, through local and regional leadership—will be central to a future of increased freedom and economic prosperity. The main effort should balance tackling Islamist extremism with support for dialogue between Israelis and Palestinians that considers security, self-determination, and cooperation with Israel and the West.
The Middle East stands at a turning point, and we see opportunities for reform and cooperation that could define the region for decades to come. Red Telescope Global has witnessed the power of political parties, civil society organizations, and passionate individuals in driving progress in many countries throughout the world, and we believe support for these efforts can be highly beneficial to a future American relationship with the Middle East. The Trump Administration has a real chance to lead this effort by expanding the Abraham Accords, supporting reforms in Lebanon and Syria, and addressing the challenges posed by Iran. RTG is committed to assisting in these efforts and calls on the administration to act decisively and with the vision to ensure a brighter future for all nations and all people in the Middle East.